North Augusta, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

741
FXUS62 KCAE 211051
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
651 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible through
early this morning ahead of a cold front approaching from the
west. Behind the front, we will see dry weather and cooler
temperatures than we have experienced in the past week or so.
Then we return to a more seasonable pattern for Sunday with
temperatures rising back to near or above normal and a chance of
rain each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Rain chances end early this morning with partial clearing in
  the afternoon as the front moves through the region.

Lingering showers and thunderstorms at daybreak, mainly across
the lower CSRA, should quickly dissipate or move out of the
forecast area early this morning. Skies should then transition
to scattered cumulus by the afternoon with high clouds filtering
in this evening. There is a low-end chance of a pop-up shower
or thunderstorm this afternoon, especially in the eastern
Midlands, but confidence is not high enough to put rain chances
in the forecast. With the passing front, winds may be breezy at
times in the afternoon, especially over Lake Murray. Forecast
highs should range from the mid-80s to around 90 degrees. Mainly
clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to fall into the
lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Gusty conditions Thursday behind a front
- Cool, dry weather in store for Friday and Saturday.

Thursday and Thursday night: Surface low pressure will deepen
offshore as it lifts north along the East Coast. A strong
pressure gradient in the wake of the cold front will lead to
deep mixing and gusty winds during the day. ECMWF EFI values for
wind gusts on Thursday range from 0.7 to 0.8 indicating
potential for stronger than normal gusts and forecast soundings
generally show winds around 40 kts at the top of the mixed
layer. Gusts above 30 mph will be possible and a Lake Wind
Advisory may be needed. Some HREF members suggest that isolated
showers or thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon
but a dry airmass and downslope winds will work to hinder
convection. Even so we can`t rule out an isolated shower or
thunderstorm during the afternoon. With cold advection lagging
behind the front and downslope flow leading to diabatic heating
we expect highs on Thursday above normal with values in the low
to mid 80s. Lows overnight will be in the mid 50s to low 60s as
mixing prevents ideal radiational cooling.

Friday through Saturday night: With a cool, dry airmass firmly
in place over the region by Friday morning we will see
temperatures much cooler than the past week or so. Highs will be
in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows will be coolest on Friday
night (low to mid 50s) with surface high pressure over the
region. No rain is expected with median PWAT values from the
LREF below 1 inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Seasonable temps and moisture return

Global ensembles favor rising 500 mb heights late this weekend
through the end of the long term. With models also tending
towards deep SW flow over the Southeast we can expect to see a
return to near or above normal atmospheric moisture and
temperatures. Mean PWAT values from the GEFS rise up to 125
percent of normal. With this return to a more seasonable
synoptic pattern we can expect highs generally in the mid 80s to
low 90s and a chance of diurnal convection each day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Conditions Improve this Morning....

Radar at daybreak shows scattered showers passing through all
the terminals this morning, with a thunderstorm passing just
south of AGS. Rain chances end early this morning, with all
terminals returning to VFR, while skies transition to scattered
cumulus by the afternoon as a cold front moves through the
region. Winds should increase quickly this morning and with
gusts in excess of 20 knots possible for much of the daytime
hours, diminishing this evening. Expect VFR conditions to
continue into the overnight hours.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions are likely outside
of mainly diurnal convection and typical vsby issues at AGS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$